MODELLING THE TRANSMISSION DYNAMICS OF LASSA HEMORRHAGIC FEVER WITH MITIGATING MEASURES USING FRACTIONAL ORDER DERIVATIVES

Abstract

This study proposes a fractional-order model, formulated in the sense of the Caputo fractional derivative, to investigate the transmission dynamics of Lassa hemorrhagic fever. A necessary qualitative analysis was conducted to assess the validity of the model. The fundamental number of reproduction (R0), was estimated using the next generation matrix approach and was found to be less than unity (1) through the stability analysis. The Jacobi and Lyapunov approach was utilized to construct the stability analysis at Infection free and Endemic Equilibrium respectively. The fractional order model is analyzed using a modified Adams-Bashforth technique. Additionally, the numerical simulations were done to validate the effect of various parameters on the model as a whole. The estimator-corrector graphical solutions indicate that the fractional order β, which is the saturation factor impact the dynamics of the model when varied. The results indicate that saturation of infectious individuals in the system helps flatten the infection transmission curve thereby achieving a disease free community in the long run.