Evaluation of November 23, 2022, Duzce Earthquake data with Ground Motion Prediction Equations

Abstract

An earthquake with a magnitude of 5.9 Mw occurred in Düzce (Gölyaka) on November 23, 2022. A rupture occurred on the Karadere Segment, a section of the North Anatolian Fault zone. According to the investigations, an 8 km section that was not broken in the 1999 Gölcük Earthquake was broken by this earthquake and caused the earthquake. Station number 8105, one of the stations of the Disaster and Emergency Presidency, measured the maximum ground acceleration of the earthquake as 0.6 g. This value is above the peak ground acceleration (PGA) value taken from the hazard map of the region. This earthquake in the Marmara region attracts the attention of researchers both because it is close to the 1999 Gölcük Earthquake and because there is an earthquake expectation in Istanbul and its surroundings. Researchers create ground motion prediction equations to predict the effects of future earthquakes. This study, it is aimed to compare 5 ground motion equations developed for Türkiye. PGA data were collected and compared with the 5 ground motion prediction equation (GMPE, or attenuation relationship) employed from the stations taking measurements from the earthquake, and the compatibility of the earthquake with the 5 existing models was investigated. As a result of the study, it was determined that the GMPEs prepared using the data in the region where the earthquake occurred showed a higher fit among these GMPEs. In addition, it has been observed that low PGA values at stations farther from the epicenter of the earthquake fit better with the curves obtained from the GMPEs. The number of data sets in GMPEs and the study area increase the possibility of estimating earthquake parameters. The data set for AR4 GMPE used in the study and the fact that the region taken into consideration is the region where the earthquake occurred increased the data-model compatibility. It was concluded that existing GMPEs should be updated to predict future earthquakes and their effects better.