Snow Avalanche Risk Assessment using GIS-Based AHP for Bitlis Province

Abstract

Bitlis province, located in the Eastern Anatolia of Turkey, is the region with the highest snowfall in the country. Due to its highland and steep structure, the region is at high avalanche risk. The assessment of snow avalanche risks is critical in modern disaster management. In this study, the avalanche risks were assessed using the analytical hierarchy process (AHP), which is an effective multiple criteria decisionmaking method. The avalanche risk was considered to depend on many factors, such as temperature, slope, elevation, aspect, land use, soil, lithology, precipitation, distance to the fault and population. The outputs obtained from the method were mapped in the GIS environment, and thus the avalanche risks of the region were determined. According to the results, especially the highland and steep southern parts and the two volcanic mountain foothills in the region were evaluated as high risk. The study results were validated by comparing past avalanche events and some previous research.